ObsurfableThe zero-click argument is no longer speculative. Two studies published in 2025–2026 — one observational, one experimental — provide the strongest evidence yet that AI-generated answers are fundamentally changing how people use search.
This article updates the data in our Rise of AI Answers and Zero-Click Search report with the latest findings.
Pew 2025: what happens when AI summaries appear
In July 2025, Pew Research Center analyzed 68,879 real Google searches from 900 US adults who shared their browsing activity (March 2025).
The click data:
| Behavior | With AI summary | Without AI summary |
|---|---|---|
| Clicked a traditional result | 8% | 15% |
| Clicked a link inside the summary | 1% | — |
| Ended browsing session on the page | 26% | 16% |
When an AI summary appeared, users were half as likely to click any traditional result. They almost never clicked sources cited inside the summary itself (1%). And they were more likely to leave without visiting any website.
Additional context from the same dataset:
- 18% of all Google searches in March 2025 triggered an AI Overview
- 88% of AI summaries cited three or more sources
- Longer, question-shaped queries triggered summaries more often (53% for 10+ word queries vs 8% for one- to two-word queries)
- Wikipedia, YouTube, and Reddit were the most-cited sources
Google disputed the methodology. But independent analyses from Ahrefs, Amsive, and ISB/Carnegie Mellon point in the same direction.
Pew 2026: AI summaries are mainstream
Pew's follow-up survey (February 2026, 5,119 US adults) found:
- 60% of US adults say they read AI summaries at the top of search results
- 30% say they do not
- 10% are unsure
AI summaries are no longer a niche feature used by early adopters. They are a mainstream information consumption behavior for the majority of American adults.
ISB / Carnegie Mellon: the experimental evidence
Observational data shows correlation. A randomized field experiment shows causation.
Researchers at the Indian School of Business and Carnegie Mellon Mellon (SSRN, January–February 2026) ran a randomized field experiment with 1,065 users:
- AI Overviews cut organic clicks by 38% compared to the control condition
- This is causal — not just correlated with query type or user behavior
Combined with Pew's observational data, the picture is clear: AI Overviews do not just appear alongside organic results. They replace the click for a large share of users.
Ahrefs: the CTR collapse on AIO keywords
Ahrefs' February 2026 update to its 300,000-keyword study quantified the ranking impact:
- Average top-1 CTR drops 58% when an AI Overview is present (up from -34.5% in the April 2025 study)
- Top-1 informational CTR went from 0.076% (December 2023) to 0.039% (December 2025)
- On AIO-triggering keywords specifically: 0.073% to 0.016%
Read that last number again: on keywords that trigger AI Overviews, the #1 organic result gets a CTR of 0.016%. Ranking first is nearly meaningless if you are not also in the AI answer.
What this means strategically
1. The click is not the success metric anymore.
If 60% of adults read AI summaries and 1% click cited links, the brand that is named in the answer wins — not the brand that ranks #1 below it.
2. Zero-click is the default, not the exception.
SparkToro's long-standing data (~58.5% zero-click in 2024) plus Pew and ISB data suggest the majority of searches now end without a visit to any external website. AI Overviews accelerate a trend that was already underway.
3. Measurement must shift to AI visibility.
Rankings and CTR measure a shrinking channel. Answer inclusion rate, share of voice, and citation frequency measure the channel that is growing.
4. The window for first-mover advantage is open.
Most brands still measure only organic search. Teams that start tracking AI visibility now establish baselines before the channel becomes crowded.
How Obsurfable fits
Obsurfable measures what traditional analytics cannot: whether your brand appears in AI-generated answers. Define prompts, run retrieval, track mentions and citations over time, and connect the data to optimization actions.
The zero-click data explains why this matters. Obsurfable provides the how.
The bottom line
Three independent research streams — Pew's behavioral data, ISB's randomized experiment, and Ahrefs' CTR analysis — converge on one conclusion: AI summaries are changing search behavior at scale, and the brands that adapt their measurement and optimization to the citation layer will outperform those still watching ranking dashboards.